Thursday, August 07, 2008

ITS GERMANY AGAIN AND AGAIN

Joel HillikerColumnist

The Coming European Obama

August 6, 2008 | From theTrumpet.com

Germans want a politician who inspires them. Biblical prophecy says they’ll get their wish.

“If Barack Obama accomplished one thing in Berlin,” wrote Germany’s Spiegel Online, “it was to make it painfully obvious just how uninspiring German politicians are.”

This sentiment echoed through Germany after the American presidential candidate’s July 24 appearance attracted 200,000 German spectators—a huge crowd that skewed young.

Make us an Obama” ran the headline of the conservative tabloid Bild the morning of the senator’s appearance. “In his words, we hear a better future. In his aura, we see a glorious, righteous America,” it said. “Welcome, Mr. Hope!”

“I felt that if he is voted into office, the world will change,” one young German told Spiegel. Of this 27-year-old student, Julian Metz, the article said, “He was electrified, infected with a new political bug, and he said that he now intends to become politically involved for the first time in his life. But there is only one problem. ‘Unfortunately,’ said Metz, ‘we have nothing comparable on the horizon in Germany.’”

Yes, where is Germany’s Obama?, Spiegel asked. “Why doesn’t Germany have similarly inspiring politicians?”

That’s a fascinating question. The fact that Germans are asking it is enormously significant.

The last time they were asking this question in earnest was in the dark days following the First World War.

The victors in that great global conflict were bitter at Germany for its repeated and increasingly destructive imperialistic exploits. Determined to make the nation pay, they stripped it of strong rulership, setting up the flimsy democracy of the Weimar Republic.

Winston Churchill later recorded how shortsighted it was to leave such a leadership gap. “Wise policy would have crowned and fortified the Weimar Republic with a constitutional sovereign in the person of an infant grandson of the kaiser, under a council of regency. Instead, a gaping void was opened in the national life of the German people,” Churchill wrote in Memoirs of the Second World War. “The Weimar Republic, with all its liberal trappings and blessings, was regarded as an imposition of the enemy. It could not hold the loyalties or the imagination of the German people.”

What happened next is a matter of history.

“Thereafter mighty forces were adrift, the void was open,” Churchill continued, “and into that void after a pause there strode a maniac of ferocious genius, the repository and expression of the most virulent hatreds that have ever corroded the human breast—Corporal Hitler.”

After Adolf Hitler had roused the nation to follow him into the flames of the Holocaust—and a war that killed an unparalleled 50 million people—the again-defeated nation brooded over what had happened.

Architects of the postwar German republic introduced a political system they hoped would prevent Germany from being lured by such demagoguery in the future. The system emphasized parties rather than individuals, and buried the charisma of politicians under a heavy blanket of bureaucracy.

In the decades that have followed, German politics have been marked by measured, deliberate, unspectacular, even behind-the-scenes and under-the-table steps. Bit by bit, Germany’s leaders have restored their nation’s international standing and increased its economic reach. They have dressed German ambitions in European garments, gradually positioning their nation as the unofficial but unmistakable leader of a Europe striving for “ever greater union.” They have turned Germany into an industrial powerhouse at the heart of the world’s greatest trade entity. And they have carefully dismantled the stigma surrounding the deployment of German armed forces abroad.

The process has been, on the whole, so quiet—so remarkably devoid of the personality and passion that could evoke unpleasant memories—that Germans today, although they stand on the threshold of world power, are still getting impatient with what they perceive as the timidity and mediocrity of their leaders.

“While not unaware of their own history, the generation of 25-year-olds feels far less inhibited by it than its predecessors,” Spiegel wrote. “The younger generation is no longer susceptible to older Germans’ instinctive aversion to passionate politicians. On the contrary, young Germans yearn for someone to inspire them instead of simply telling them what to do” (emphasis mine).

As global conditions become more unstable—as turbulence in the economic system grows more fierce; as Islam’s invasive presence in Europe spreads; as the effectiveness of America’s leadership continues to wane; as the threat to Europe from nations like Iran, Russia and China continues to grow; as destructive weapons proliferate and the dangers of war become more real—the yearning for strong leadership is going to build.

This growing sentiment among Germans is not out of step with a movement within Europe as a whole—certainly within the Eurocracy in Brussels—that is frustrated with how cumbersome the EU’s current government is. Many Europeans are agitating for more robust leadership. The growing popularity of outspoken right-wing political parties testifies of this.

Even the drive behind the Lisbon Treaty—which EU leaders are proving themselves determined to implement no matter who stands in their way—is essentially about carving away bureaucratic bloat and bestowing more potent powers upon the upper-crustiest of Europe’s elite. It seeks to crown, at the very top, a single president, the face of the European Union.

The reason all this stage-setting is so worthy of watching will not be lost on regular Trumpet readers.

It regards a biblical prophecy we have mentioned many times—of the emergence of a charismatic and extraordinarily powerful leader who is destined to seize control of Europe.

Herbert W. Armstrong spoke of this prophecy for decades. In fact, the very first edition of the Plain Truth newsmagazine—which he founded in February 1934 and which grew to enjoy an international circulation of 8.4 million by the 1980s—he headlined this very subject: “Is a World Dictator About to Appear?

Even after Hitler came and went, and most believed the threat from Germany was buried in history, Mr. Armstrong continued to draw people’s attention to this inerrant biblical pronouncement. “Germany inevitably would emerge as the leader of a united Europe,” he wrote in the November-December 1954 Plain Truth edition—a statement that most people only ridiculed. “All Europe is actually ready—just waiting for the confidence-inspiring leader—an international all-European Hitler, and it is on the way. That man is there somewhere.”

Again in May 1969 he blasted, “The world appears bereft of ‘great men.’ But a world-recognized ‘strong man’ in all probability will now very soon appear. … There will be 10, ruling 10 nations or groups of nations in the area of the once-great Holy Roman Empire. But there will be one super-king over the 10.”

Mr. Armstrong was right. Though conditions weren’t yet ripe for this “strong man” to emerge when Mr. Armstrong was warning about him, today we see the stage being set for his appearance. And he is out there somewhere.

The Trumpet has continued to proclaim the advance news of this coming dictator. Editor in chief Gerald Flurry has stated plainly, “Soon, Germany will be ruled by a man more cunning and deceitful than Adolf Hitler” (Nahum—An End-Time Prophecy for Germany; request a free copy).

This demagogue is described in detail in several prophecies (e.g. Habakkuk 1:11-12—read our booklet Habakkuk; also Isaiah 10:5-7).

This prophecy is one of the most important you could watch for in today’s news. Many Germans are getting impatient. They want a politician who inspires them. Biblical prophecy says that soon they—along with the rest of Europe—will get their wish.

Like their fathers and grandfathers, they too will allow themselves to be seduced by the soaring rhetoric and bold leadership of a passionate politician, a man who promises to lead them to glory. In his words, they will hear a better future. In his aura, they will see a glorious, righteous Germany and Europe.

Welcome, Mr. Hope.

But the Bible is clear: He will only lead them, and the rest of the world, into the flames of another Holocaust.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

1939

1939
Hitler Receives an Ultimatum


Hitler's aggressive acquisition of territory began in 1936 when he ordered his army to reoccupy the Rhineland district of Germany. Bordering France, the Rhineland had been designated as a demilitarized zone by the Versailles Treaty ending World War I. It was a high-risk endeavor for Hitler. The German troops were unprepared, poorly equipped and had orders to retreat if the French offered any resistance. In the end, the maneuver went smoothly without any hindrance. Encouraged by this result, Hitler went on to absorb Austria and the German dominated Sudetenland area of Czechoslovakia into the German Third Reich in 1938. In March of the next year he occupied the remainder of Czechoslovakia

Residents salute as Hitler
enters the Sudetenland, 1938
Bolstered by the tepid response of Britain and France to his earlier excursions, Hitler set his sights on Poland. However, British Prime Minister Chamberlain had come to the realization that Hitler's territorial ambitions could not be tempered by submitting to his demands. In March 1939 he declared that Britain guaranteed Poland's independence and vowed to come to her aid if attacked. France soon joined Britain in support of Poland.

Hitler was undeterred. On August 23, 1939 he stunned the world with the announcement that he had signed a non-aggression treaty with the Soviet Union. The German Fuhrer was now assured that he could invade Poland without fear of Russian interference.

The assault was originally scheduled to begin in the early morning hours of August 26th. However, on August 25th, Britain announced that her guarantee of Polish independence had been formalized by an alliance between the two countries. Hitler wavered and postponed his attack to September 1.

The Germans concocted a story of Polish troops crossing their border and firing on various installations. In supposed retaliation, German tanks rolled across the Polish border during the early hours of September 1, 1939. Tensions were running high throughout Europe. Britain and France began mobilization of their armies while Italy's Mussolini desperately tried to intervene with Hitler to forestall war. The British and French representatives met with German Foreign Minister Ribbentrop warning that they would fulfill their obligation to Poland and go to war if German forces did not withdraw from Polish territory.

At 9:00 on the morning of September 3, Sir Neville Henderson, Britain's ambassador to Germany, delivered an ultimatum stating that if hostilities did not stop by 11 AM, a state of war would exist between Great Britain and Germany. Germany did not respond and at 11:15 on the morning of September 3, 1939 Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain went on the radio to announce to the British people that they were at war with Germany.


"...there was complete silence. Hitler sat immobile, gazing before him."

Paul Schmidt was a translator in the German Foreign Ministry and present at the history-making events of those last days of peace in Europe. The scene is the office of the German Foreign Ministry in Berlin. It is just after midnight on September 3, 1939 and the German juggernaut continues to slam its way into Poland. The Germans have not responded to an earlier British and French demand to withdraw their troops and a message is received stating that Sir Neville Henderson, the British Ambassador to Germany, wishes to meet with German Foreign Minister Ribbontrop. It is obvious to all that the Ambassador's message will probably mean war.

We join Schmidt's story as Ribbentrop decides that the translator should meet with the British ambassador alone:

"It was after midnight when the British Embassy telephoned to say that Henderson had received instructions from London to transmit a communication from his Government at 9 a.m., and that he asked to be received by Ribbentrop at the Foreign Office at that time. It was clear that this communication could contain nothing agreeable, and that it might possibly be a real ultimatum. Ribbentrop in consequence showed not the slightest inclination to receive the British Ambassador personally next morning. I happened to be standing near him.

'Really, you could receive the Ambassador in my place,' he said to me. 'Just ask the English whether that will suit them, and say that the Foreign Minister is not available at 9 o'clock.' The English agreed, and therefore I was instructed to receive Henderson next morning - that is, in five hours time, it being now 4 o'clock in the morning.

On Sunday, September 3rd, 1939, after the pressure of work over the last few days, I overslept, and had to take a taxi to the Foreign

Children are evacuated from London
without their parents. September 1, 1939
Office. I could just see Henderson entering the building as I drove across the Wilhelmsplatz. I used a side entrance and stood in Ribbentrop's office ready to receive Henderson punctually at 9 o'clock. Henderson was announced as the hour struck. He came in looking very serious, shook hands, but declined my invitation to be seated, remaining solemnly standing in the middle of the room.

'I regret that on the instructions of my Government I have to hand you an ultimatum for the German Government,' he said with deep emotion, and then, both of us still standing up, he read out the British ultimatum. 'More than twenty-four hours have elapsed since an immediate reply was requested to the warning of September 1st, and since then the attacks on Poland have been intensified. If His Majesty's Government has not received satisfactory assurances of the cessation of all aggressive action against Poland, and the withdrawal of German troops from that country, by 11 o'clock British Summer Time, from that time a state of war will exist between Great Britain and Germany.'

When he had finished reading, Henderson handed me the ultimatum and bade me goodbye, saying: 'I am sincerely sorry that I must hand such a document to you in particular, as you have always been most anxious to help.'

I too expressed my regret, and added a few heartfelt words. I always had the highest regard for the British Ambassador.

I then took the ultimatum to the Chancellery, where everyone was anxiously awaiting me. Most of the members of the Cabinet and the leading men of the Party were collected in the room next to Hitler's office. There was something of a crush and I had difficulty in getting through to Hitler.

When I entered the next room Hitler was sitting at his desk and Ribbentrop stood by the window. Both looked up expectantly as I came in. I stopped at some distance from Hitler's desk, and then slowly translated the British Government's ultimatum. When I finished, there was complete silence.

Hitler sat immobile, gazing before him. He was not at a loss, as was afterwards stated, nor did he rage as others allege. He sat completely silent and unmoving.

Hitler observes the destruction of Warsaw
October 1939
After an interval which seemed an age, he turned to Ribbentrop, who had remained standing by the window. 'What now?' asked Hitler with a savage look, as though implying that his Foreign Minister had misled him about England's probable reaction. Ribbentrop answered quietly: 'I assume that the French will hand in a similar ultimatum within the hour.'

As my duty was now performed, I withdrew. To those in the anteroom pressing round me I said: 'The English have just handed us an ultimatum. In two hours a state of war will exist between England and Germany.' In the anteroom, too, this news was followed by complete silence.

Goering turned to me and said: 'If we lose this war, then God have mercy on us!' Goebbels stood in a corner, downcast and self-absorbed. Everywhere in the room I saw looks of grave concern, even amongst the lesser Party people."

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

A NATION OF COWARDS

A NATION OF COWARDS

Jeffrey R. Snyder

OUR SOCIETY has reached a pinnacle of self-expression and respect for individuality rare or unmatched in history. Our entire popular culture -- from fashion magazines to the cinema -- positively screams the matchless worth of the individual, and glories in eccentricity, nonconformity, independent judgment, and self-determination. This enthusiasm is reflected in the prevalent notion that helping someone entails increasing that person's "self-esteem"; that if a person properly values himself, he will naturally be a happy, productive, and, in some inexplicable fashion, responsible member of society.

And yet, while people are encouraged to revel in their individuality and incalculable self-worth, the media and the law enforcement establishment continually advise us that, when confronted with the threat of lethal violence, we should not resist, but simply give the attacker what he wants. If the crime under consideration is rape, there is some notable waffling on this point, and the discussion quickly moves to how the woman can change her behavior to minimize the risk of rape, and the various ridiculous, non-lethal weapons she may acceptably carry, such as whistles, keys, mace or, that weapon which really sends shivers down a rapist's spine, the portable cellular phone.

Now how can this be? How can a person who values himself so highly calmly accept the indignity of a criminal assault? How can one who believes that the essence of his dignity lies in his self-determination passively accept the forcible deprivation of that self-determination? How can he, quietly, with great dignity and poise, simply hand over the goods?

The assumption, of course, is that there is no inconsistency. The advice not to resist a criminal assault and simply hand over the goods is founded on the notion that one's life is of incalculable value, and that no amount of property is worth it. Put aside, for a moment, the outrageousness of the suggestion that a criminal who proffers lethal violence should be treated as if he has instituted a new social contract: "I will not hurt or kill you if you give me what I want." For years, feminists have labored to educate people that rape is not about sex, but about domination, degradation, and control. Evidently, someone needs to inform the law enforcement establishment and the media that kidnapping, robbery, carjacking, and assault are not about property.

Crime is not only a complete disavowal of the social contract, but also a commandeering of the victim's person and liberty. If the individual's dignity lies in the fact that he is a moral agent engaging in actions of his own will, in free exchange with others, then crime always violates the victim's dignity. It is, in fact, an act of enslavement. Your wallet, your purse, or your car may not be worth your life, but your dignity is; and if it is not worth fighting for, it can hardly be said to exist.

The Gift of Life

Although difficult for modern man to fathom, it was once widely believed that life was a gift from God, that to not defend that life when offered violence was to hold God's gift in contempt, to be a coward and to breach one's duty to one's community. A sermon given in Philadelphia in 1747 unequivocally equated the failure to defend oneself with suicide:

He that suffers his life to be taken from him by one that hath no authority for that purpose, when he might preserve it by defense, incurs the Guilt of self murder since God hath enjoined him to seek the continuance of his life, and Nature itself teaches every creature to defend itself.

"Cowardice" and "self-respect" have largely disappeared from public discourse. In their place we are offered "self-esteem" as the bellwether of success and a proxy for dignity. "Self-respect" implies that one recognizes standards, and judges oneself worthy by the degree to which one lives up to them. "Self-esteem" simply means that one feels good about oneself. "Dignity" used to refer to the self-mastery and fortitude with which a person conducted himself in the face of life's vicissitudes and the boorish behavior of others. Now, judging by campus speech codes, dignity requires that we never encounter a discouraging word and that others be coerced into acting respectfully, evidently on the assumption that we are powerless to prevent our degradation if exposed to the demeaning behavior of others. These are signposts proclaiming the insubstantiality of our character, the hollowness of our souls.

It is impossible to address the problem of rampant crime without talking about the moral responsibility of the intended victim. Crime is rampant because the law-abiding, each of us, condone it, excuse it, permit it, submit to it. We permit and encourage it because we do not fight back, immediately, then and there, where it happens. Crime is not rampant because we do not have enough prisons, because judges and prosecutors are too soft, because the police are hamstrung with absurd technicalities. The defect is there, in our character. We are a nation of cowards and shirkers.

Do You Feel Lucky?

In 1991, when then-Attorney General Richard Thornburgh released the FBI's annual crime statistics, he noted that it is now more likely that a person will be the victim of a violent crime than that he will be in an auto accident. Despite this, most people readily believe that the existence of the police relieves them of the responsibility to take full measures to protect themselves. The police, however, are not personal bodyguards. Rather, they act as a general deterrent to crime, both by their presence and by apprehending criminals after the fact. As numerous courts have held, they have no legal obligation to protect anyone in particular. You cannot sue them for failing to prevent you from being the victim of a crime.

Insofar as the police deter by their presence, they are very, very good. Criminals take great pains not to commit a crime in front of them. Unfortunately, the corollary is that you can pretty much bet your life (and you are) that they won't be there at the moment you actually need them.

Should you ever be the victim of an assault, a robbery, or a rape, you will find it very difficult to call the police while the act is in progress, even if you are carrying a portable cellular phone. Nevertheless, you might be interested to know how long it takes them to show up. Department of Justice statistics for 1991 show that, for all crimes of violence, only 28 percent of calls are responded to within five minutes. The idea that protection is a service people can call to have delivered and expect to receive in a timely fashion is often mocked by gun owners, who love to recite the challenge, "Call for a cop, call for an ambulance, and call for a pizza. See who shows up first."

Many people deal with the problem of crime by convincing themselves that they live, work, and travel only in special "crime-free" zones. Invariably, they react with shock and hurt surprise when they discover that criminals do not play by the rules and do not respect these imaginary boundaries. If, however, you understand that crime can occur anywhere at anytime, and if you understand that you can be maimed or mortally wounded in mere seconds, you may wish to consider whether you are willing to place the responsibility for safeguarding your life in the hands of others.

Power And Responsibility

Is your life worth protecting? If so, whose responsibility is it to protect it? If you believe that it is the police's, not only are you wrong -- since the courts universally rule that they have no legal obligation to do so -- but you face some difficult moral quandaries. How can you rightfully ask another human being to risk his life to protect yours, when you will assume no responsibility yourself? Because that is his job and we pay him to do it? Because your life is of incalculable value, but his is only worth the $30,000 salary we pay him? If you believe it reprehensible to possess the means and will to use lethal force to repel a criminal assault, how can you call upon another to do so for you?

Do you believe that you are forbidden to protect yourself because the police are better qualified to protect you, because they know what they are doing but you're a rank amateur? Put aside that this is equivalent to believing that only concert pianists may play the piano and only professional athletes may play sports. What exactly are these special qualities possessed only by the police and beyond the rest of us mere mortals?

One who values his life and takes seriously his responsibilities to his family and community will possess and cultivate the means of fighting back, and will retaliate when threatened with death or grievous injury to himself or a loved one. He will never be content to rely solely on others for his safety, or to think he has done all that is possible by being aware of his surroundings and taking measures of avoidance. Let's not mince words: He will be armed, will be trained in the use of his weapon, and will defend himself when faced with lethal violence.

Fortunately, there is a weapon for preserving life and liberty that can be wielded effectively by almost anyone -- the handgun. Small and light enough to be carried habitually, lethal, but unlike the knife or sword, not demanding great skill or strength, it truly is the "great equalizer." Requiring only hand-eye coordination and a modicum of ability to remain cool under pressure, it can be used effectively by the old and the weak against the young and the strong, by the one against the many.

The handgun is the only weapon that would give a lone female jogger a chance of prevailing against a gang of thugs intent on rape, a teacher a chance of protecting children at recess from a madman intent on massacring them, a family of tourists waiting at a mid-town subway station the means to protect themselves from a gang of teens armed with razors and knives.

But since we live in a society that by and large outlaws the carrying of arms, we are brought into the fray of the Great American Gun War. Gun control is one of the most prominent battlegrounds in our current culture wars. Yet it is unique in the half-heartedness with which our conservative leaders and pundits -- our "conservative elite" -- do battle, and have conceded the moral high ground to liberal gun control proponents. It is not a topic often written about, or written about with any great fervor, by William F. Buckley or Patrick Buchanan. As drug czar, William Bennett advised President Bush to ban "assault weapons." George Will is on record as recommending the repeal of the Second Amendment, and Jack Kemp is on record as favoring a ban on the possession of semiautomatic "assault weapons." The battle for gun rights is one fought predominantly by the common man. The beliefs of both our liberal and conservative elites are in fact abetting the criminal rampage through our society.

Selling Crime Prevention

By any rational measure, nearly all gun control proposals are hokum. The Brady Bill, for example, would not have prevented John Hinckley from obtaining a gun to shoot President Reagan; Hinckley purchased his weapon five months before the attack, and his medical records could not have served as a basis to deny his purchase of a gun, since medical records are not public documents filed with the police. Similarly, California's waiting period and background check did not stop Patrick Purdy from purchasing the "assault rifle" and handguns he used to massacre children during recess in a Stockton schoolyard; the felony conviction that would have provided the basis for stopping the sales did not exist, because Mr. Purdy's previous weapons violations were plea-bargained down from felonies to misdemeanors.

In the mid-sixties there was a public service advertising campaign targeted at car owners about the prevention of car theft. The purpose of the ad was to urge car owners not to leave their keys in their cars. The message was, "Don't help a good boy go bad." The implication was that, by leaving his keys in his car, the normal, law-abiding car owner was contributing to the delinquency of minors who, if they just weren't tempted beyond their limits, would be "good." Now, in those days people still had a fair sense of just who was responsible for whose behavior. The ad succeeded in enraging a goodly portion of the populace, and was soon dropped.

Nearly all of the gun control measures offered by Handgun Control, Inc. (HCI) and its ilk embody the same philosophy. They are founded on the belief that America's law-abiding gun owners are the source of the problem. With their unholy desire for firearms, they are creating a society awash in a sea of guns, thereby helping good boys go bad, and helping bad boys be badder. This laying of moral blame for violent crime at the feet of the law-abiding, and the implicit absolution of violent criminals for their misdeeds, naturally infuriates honest gun owners.

The files of HCI and other gun control organizations are filled with proposals to limit the availability of semiautomatic and other firearms to law-abiding citizens, and barren of proposals for apprehending and punishing violent criminals. It is ludicrous to expect that the proposals of HCI, or any gun control laws, will significantly curb crime. According to Department of Justice and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) statistics, fully 90 percent of violent crimes are committed without a handgun, and 93 percent of the guns obtained by violent criminals are not obtained through the lawful purchase and sale transactions that are the object of most gun control legislation. Furthermore, the number of violent criminals is minute in comparison to the number of firearms in America -- estimated by the ATF at about 200 million, approximately one-third of which are handguns. With so abundant a supply, there will always be enough guns available for those who wish to use them for nefarious ends, no matter how complete the legal prohibitions against them, or how draconian the punishment for their acquisition or use. No, the gun control proposals of HCI and other organizations are not seriously intended as crime control. Something else is at work here.

The Tyranny of the Elite

Gun control is a moral crusade against a benighted, barbaric citizenry. This is demonstrated not only by the ineffectualness of gun control in preventing crime, and by the fact that it focuses on restricting the behavior of the law-abiding rather than apprehending and punishing the guilty, but also by the execration that gun control proponents heap on gun owners and their evil instrumentality, the NRA. Gun owners are routinely portrayed as uneducated, paranoid rednecks fascinated by and prone to violence, i.e., exactly the type of person who opposes the liberal agenda and whose moral and social "re-education" is the object of liberal social policies. Typical of such bigotry is New York Gov. Mario Cuomo's famous characterization of gun-owners as "hunters who drink beer, don't vote, and lie to their wives about where they were all weekend." Similar vituperation is rained upon the NRA, characterized by Sen. Edward Kennedy as the "pusher's best friend," lampooned in political cartoons as standing for the right of children to carry firearms to school and, in general, portrayed as standing for an individual's God-given right to blow people away at will.

The stereotype is, of course, false. As criminologist and constitutional lawyer Don B. Kates, Jr. and former HCI contributor Dr. Patricia Harris have pointed out, "[s]tudies consistently show that, on the average, gun owners are better educated and have more prestigious jobs than non-owners.... Later studies show that gun owners are less likely than non-owners to approve of police brutality, violence against dissenters, etc."

Conservatives must understand that the antipathy many liberals have for gun owners arises in good measure from their statist utopianism. This habit of mind has nowhere been better explored than in The Republic. There, Plato argues that the perfectly just society is one in which an unarmed people exhibit virtue by minding their own business in the performance of their assigned functions, while the government of philosopher-kings, above the law and protected by armed guardians unquestioning in their loyalty to the state, engineers, implements, and fine-tunes the creation of that society, aided and abetted by myths that both hide and justify their totalitarian manipulation.

The Unarmed Life

When columnist Carl Rowan preaches gun control and uses a gun to defend his home, when Maryland Gov. William Donald Schaefer seeks legislation year after year to ban semiautomatic "assault weapons" whose only purpose, we are told, is to kill people, while he is at the same time escorted by state police armed with large-capacity 9mm semiautomatic pistols, it is not simple hypocrisy. It is the workings of that habit of mind possessed by all superior beings who have taken upon themselves the terrible burden of civilizing the masses and who understand, like our Congress, that laws are for other people.

The liberal elite know that they are philosopher-kings. They know that the people simply cannot be trusted; that they are incapable of just and fair self-government; that left to their own devices, their society will be racist, sexist, homophobic, and inequitable -- and the liberal elite know how to fix things. They are going to help us live the good and just life, even if they have to lie to us and force us to do it. And they detest those who stand in their way.

The private ownership of firearms is a rebuke to this utopian zeal. To own firearms is to affirm that freedom and liberty are not gifts from the state. It is to reserve final judgment about whether the state is encroaching on freedom and liberty, to stand ready to defend that freedom with more than mere words, and to stand outside the state's totalitarian reach.

The Florida Experience

The elitist distrust of the people underlying the gun control movement is illustrated beautifully in HCI's campaign against a new concealed-carry law in Florida. Prior to 1987, the Florida law permitting the issuance of concealed-carry permits was administered at the county level. The law was vague, and, as a result, was subject to conflicting interpretation and political manipulation. Permits were issued principally to security personnel and the privileged few with political connections. Permits were valid only within the county of issuance.

In 1987, however, Florida enacted a uniform concealed-carry law which mandates that county authorities issue a permit to anyone who satisfies certain objective criteria. The law requires that a permit be issued to any applicant who is a resident, at least twenty-one years of age, has no criminal record, no record of alcohol or drug abuse, no history of mental illness, and provides evidence of having satisfactorily completed a firearms safety course offered by the NRA or other competent instructor. The applicant must provide a set of fingerprints, after which the authorities make a background check. The permit must be issued or denied within ninety days, is valid throughout the state, and must be renewed every three years, which provides authorities a regular means of reevaluating whether the permit holder still qualifies.

Passage of this legislation was vehemently opposed by HCI and the media. The law, they said, would lead to citizens shooting each other over everyday disputes involving fender benders, impolite behavior, and other slights to their dignity. Terms like "Florida, the Gunshine State" and "Dodge City East" were coined to suggest that the state, and those seeking passage of the law, were encouraging individuals to act as judge, jury, and executioner in a "Death Wish" society.

No HCI campaign more clearly demonstrates the elitist beliefs underlying the campaign to eradicate gun ownership. Given the qualifications required of permit holders, HCI and the media can only believe that common, law-abiding citizens are seething cauldrons of homicidal rage, ready to kill to avenge any slight to their dignity, eager to seek out and summarily execute the lawless. Only lack of immediate access to a gun restrains them and prevents the blood from flowing in the streets. They are so mentally and morally deficient that they would mistake a permit to carry a weapon in self-defense as a state-sanctioned license to kill at will.

Did the dire predictions come true? Despite the fact that Miami and Dade County have severe problems with the drug trade, the homicide rate fell in Florida following enactment of this law, as it did in Oregon following enactment of similar legislation there. There are, in addition, several documented cases of new permit holders successfully using their weapons to defend themselves. Information from the Florida Department of State shows that, from the beginning of the program in 1987 through June 1993, 160,823 permits have been issued, and only 530, or about 0.33 percent of the applicants, have been denied a permit for failure to satisfy the criteria, indicating that the law is benefitting those whom it was intended to benefit -- the law-abiding. Only 16 permits, less than 1/100th of 1 percent, have been revoked due to the post-issuance commission of a crime involving a firearm.

The Florida legislation has been used as a model for legislation adopted by Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Mississippi. There are, in addition, seven other states (Maine, North and South Dakota, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, and, with the exception of cities with a population in excess of 1 million, Pennsylvania) which provide that concealed-carry permits must be issued to law-abiding citizens who satisfy various objective criteria. Finally, no permit is required at all in Vermont. Altogether, then, there are thirteen states in which law-abiding citizens who wish to carry arms to defend themselves may do so. While no one appears to have compiled the statistics from all of these jurisdictions, there is certainly an ample data base for those seeking the truth about the trustworthiness of law-abiding citizens who carry firearms.

Other evidence also suggests that armed citizens are very responsible in using guns to defend themselves. Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck, using surveys and other data, has determined that armed citizens defend their lives or property with firearms against criminals approximately 1 million times a year. In 98 percent of these instances, the citizen merely brandishes the weapon or fires a warning shot. Only in 2 percent of the cases do citizens actually shoot their assailants. In defending themselves with their firearms, armed citizens kill 2,000 to 3,000 criminals each year, three times the number killed by the police. A nationwide study by Kates, the constitutional lawyer and criminologist, found that only 2 percent of civilian shootings involved an innocent person mistakenly identified as a criminal. The "error rate" for the police, however, was 11 percent, over five times as high.

It is simply not possible to square the numbers above and the experience of Florida with the notions that honest, law-abiding gun owners are borderline psychopaths itching for an excuse to shoot someone, vigilantes eager to seek out and summarily execute the lawless, or incompetent fools incapable of determining when it is proper to use lethal force in defense of their lives. Nor upon reflection should these results seem surprising. Rape, robbery, and attempted murder are not typically actions rife with ambiguity or subtlety, requiring special powers of observation and great book-learning to discern. When a man pulls a knife on a woman and says, "You're coming with me," her judgment that a crime is being committed is not likely to be in error. There is little chance that she is going to shoot the wrong person. It is the police, because they are rarely at the scene of the crime when it occurs, who are more likely to find themselves in circumstances where guilt and innocence are not so clear-cut, and in which the probability for mistakes is higher.

Arms and Liberty

Classical republican philosophy has long recognized the critical relationship between personal liberty and the possession of arms by a people ready and willing to use them. Political theorists as dissimilar as Niccolo Machiavelli, Sir Thomas More, James Harrington, Algernon Sidney, John Locke, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau all shared the view that the possession of arms is vital for resisting tyranny, and that to be disarmed by one's government is tantamount to being enslaved by it. The possession of arms by the people is the ultimate warrant that government governs only with the consent of the governed. As Kates has shown, the Second Amendment is as much a product of this political philosophy as it is of the American experience in the Revolutionary War. Yet our conservative elite has abandoned this aspect of republican theory. Although our conservative pundits recognize and embrace gun owners as allies in other arenas, their battle for gun rights is desultory. The problem here is not a statist utopianism, although goodness knows that liberals are not alone in the confidence they have in the state's ability to solve society's problems. Rather, the problem seems to lie in certain cultural traits shared by our conservative and liberal elites.

One such trait is an abounding faith in the power of the word. The failure of our conservative elite to defend the Second Amendment stems in great measure from an overestimation of the power of the rights set forth in the First Amendment, and a general undervaluation of action. Implicit in calls for the repeal of the Second Amendment is the assumption that our First Amendment rights are sufficient to preserve our liberty. The belief is that liberty can be preserved as long as men freely speak their minds; that there is no tyranny or abuse that can survive being exposed in the press; and that the truth need only be disclosed for the culprits to be shamed. The people will act, and the truth shall set us, and keep us, free.

History is not kind to this belief, tending rather to support the view of Hobbes, Machiavelli, and other republican theorists that only people willing and able to defend themselves can preserve their liberties. While it may be tempting and comforting to believe that the existence of mass electronic communication has forever altered the balance of power between the state and its subjects, the belief has certainly not been tested by time, and what little history there is in the age of mass communication is not especially encouraging. The camera, radio, and press are mere tools and, like guns, can be used for good or ill. Hitler, after all, was a masterful orator, used radio to very good effect, and is well known to have pioneered and exploited the propaganda opportunities afforded by film. And then, of course, there were the Brownshirts, who knew very well how to quell dissent among intellectuals.

Polite Society

In addition to being enamored of the power of words, our conservative elite shares with liberals the notion that an armed society is just not civilized or progressive, that massive gun ownership is a blot on our civilization. This association of personal disarmament with civilized behavior is one of the great unexamined beliefs of our time.

Should you read English literature from the sixteenth through nineteenth centuries, you will discover numerous references to the fact that a gentleman, especially when out at night or traveling, armed himself with a sword or a pistol against the chance of encountering a highwayman or other such predator. This does not appear to have shocked the ladies accompanying him. True, for the most part there were no police in those days, but we have already addressed the notion that the presence of the police absolves people of the responsibility to look after their safety, and in any event the existence of the police cannot be said to have reduced crime to negligible levels.

It is by no means obvious why it is "civilized" to permit oneself to fall easy prey to criminal violence, and to permit criminals to continue unobstructed in their evil ways. While it may be that a society in which crime is so rare that no one ever needs to carry a weapon is "civilized," a society that stigmatizes the carrying of weapons by the law-abiding -- because it distrusts its citizens more than it fears rapists, robbers, and murderers -- certainly cannot claim this distinction. Perhaps the notion that defending oneself with lethal force is not "civilized" arises from the view that violence is always wrong, or the view that each human being is of such intrinsic worth that it is wrong to kill anyone under any circumstances. The necessary implication of these propositions, however, is that life is not worth defending. Far from being "civilized," the beliefs that counterviolence and killing are always wrong are an invitation to the spread of barbarism. Such beliefs announce loudly and clearly that those who do not respect the lives and property of others will rule over those who do.

In truth, one who believes it wrong to arm himself against criminal violence shows contempt of God's gift of life (or, in modern parlance, does not properly value himself), does not live up to his responsibilities to his family and community, and proclaims himself mentally and morally deficient, because he does not trust himself to behave responsibly. In truth, a state that deprives its law-abiding citizens of the means to effectively defend themselves is not civilized but barbarous, becoming an accomplice of murderers, rapists, and thugs and revealing its totalitarian nature by its tacit admission that the disorganized, random havoc created by criminals is far less a threat than are men and women who believe themselves free and independent, and act accordingly.

While gun control proponents and other advocates of a kinder, gentler society incessantly decry our "armed society," in truth we do not live in an armed society. We live in a society in which violent criminals and agents of the state habitually carry weapons, and in which many law-abiding citizens own firearms but do not go about armed. Department of Justice statistics indicate that 87 percent of all violent crimes occur outside the home. Essentially, although tens of millions own firearms, we are an unarmed society.

Take Back the Night

Clearly the police and the courts are not providing a significant brake on criminal activity. While liberals call for more poverty, education, and drug treatment programs, conservatives take a more direct tack. George Will advocates a massive increase in the number of police and a shift toward "community-based policing." Meanwhile, the NRA and many conservative leaders call for laws that would require violent criminals serve at least 85 percent of their sentences and would place repeat offenders permanently behind bars.

Our society suffers greatly from the beliefs that only official action is legitimate and that the state is the source of our earthly salvation. Both liberal and conservative prescriptions for violent crime suffer from the "not in my job description" school of thought regarding the responsibilities of the law-abiding citizen, and from an overestimation of the ability of the state to provide society's moral moorings. As long as law-abiding citizens assume no personal responsibility for combatting crime, liberal and conservative programs will fail to contain it.

Judging by the numerous articles about concealed-carry in gun magazines, the growing number of products advertised for such purpose, and the increase in the number of concealed-carry applications in states with mandatory-issuance laws, more and more people, including growing numbers of women, are carrying firearms for self-defense. Since there are still many states in which the issuance of permits is discretionary and in which law enforcement officials routinely deny applications, many people have been put to the hard choice between protecting their lives or respecting the law. Some of these people have learned the hard way, by being the victim of a crime, or by seeing a friend or loved one raped, robbed, or murdered, that violent crime can happen to anyone, anywhere at anytime, and that crime is not about sex or property but life, liberty, and dignity.

The laws proscribing concealed-carry of firearms by honest, law-abiding citizens breed nothing but disrespect for the law. As the Founding Fathers knew well, a government that does not trust its honest, law-abiding, taxpaying citizens with the means of self-defense is not itself worthy of trust. Laws disarming honest citizens proclaim that the government is the master, not the servant, of the people. A federal law along the lines of the Florida statute -- overriding all contradictory state and local laws and acknowledging that the carrying of firearms by law-abiding citizens is a privilege and immunity of citizenship -- is needed to correct the outrageous conduct of state and local officials operating under discretionary licensing systems.

What we certainly do not need is more gun control. Those who call for the repeal of the Second Amendment so that we can really begin controlling firearms betray a serious misunderstanding of the Bill of Rights. The Bill of Rights does not grant rights to the people, such that its repeal would legitimately confer upon government the powers otherwise proscribed. The Bill of Rights is the list of the fundamental, inalienable rights, endowed in man by his Creator, that define what it means to be a free and independent people, the rights which must exist to ensure that government governs only with the consent of the people.

At one time this was even understood by the Supreme Court. In United States v. Cruikshank (1876), the first case in which the Court had an opportunity to interpret the Second Amendment, it stated that the right confirmed by the Second Amendment "is not a right granted by the constitution. Neither is it in any manner dependent upon that instrument for its existence." The repeal of the Second Amendment would no more render the outlawing of firearms legitimate than the repeal of the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment would authorize the government to imprison and kill people at will. A government that abrogates any of the Bill of Rights, with or without majoritarian approval, forever acts illegitimately, becomes tyrannical, and loses the moral right to govern.

This is the uncompromising understanding reflected in the warning that America's gun owners will not go gently into that good, utopian night: "You can have my gun when you pry it from my cold, dead hands." While liberals take this statement as evidence of the retrograde, violent nature of gun owners, we gun owners hope that liberals hold equally strong sentiments about their printing presses, word processors, and television cameras. The republic depends upon fervent devotion to all our fundamental rights.

Monday, August 04, 2008

FROM www.stevequayle.com

100 Items That Disappear First in a Disaster

March 20, 2003


HOLLY NOTE: This list was first assembled by Joseph Almond prior to Y2K and it is valid to consider these as "extremely desirable items" in the event of nearly any disaster. Modify as you see fit.

On more than one occasion in the last decade, Stan and I witnessed generators virtually evaporate. Ditto for portable toilets. It's been at least 9 years since this list was compiled; prices noted below will have increased.



1. Generators
(Good ones cost dearly. Gas storage, risky. Noisy...target of thieves; maintenance, etc.)

2. Water Filters/Purifiers

3. Portable Toilets (Increasing in price every two months.)

4. Seasoned Firewood
(About $100 per cord; wood takes 6 - 12 mos. to become dried, for home uses.)

5. Lamp Oil, Wicks, Lamps
(First choice: Buy CLEAR oil. If scarce, stockpile ANY!)

6. Coleman Fuel
(URGENT $2.69-$3.99/gal. Impossible to stockpile too much.)

7. Guns, Ammunition, Pepper Spray, Knives, Clubs, Bats and Slingshots

8. Hand-Can openers and hand egg beaters, whisks (Life savers!)

9. Honey/Syrups/white, brown sugars

10. Rice - Beans - Wheat
(White rice is now $12.95 - 50# bag. Sam's Club, stock depleted often.)

11. Vegetable oil (for cooking)
(Without it food burns/must be boiled, etc.)

12. Charcoal and Lighter fluid (Will become scarce suddenly.)

13. Water containers
(Urgent Item to obtain. Any size. Small: HARD CLEAR PLASTIC ONLY)

14. Mini Heater head (Propane) (Without this item, propane won't heat a room.)

15. Grain Grinder (Non-electric)

16. Propane Cylinders

17. Michael Hyatt's Y2K Survival Guide
(BEST single y2k handbook for sound advice/tips.)

18. Mantles: Aladdin, Coleman, etc.
(Without this item, longer-term lighting is difficult.)

19. Baby Supplies: Diapers/formula/ointments/aspirin, etc

20. Washboards, Mop Bucket w/wringer (for Laundry)

21. Cook stoves
(Propane, Coleman and Kerosene)

22. Vitamins
(Critical, due 10 Y2K-forced daily canned food diets.)

23. Propane Cylinder Handle-Holder
(Urgent: Small canister use is dangerous without this item.)

24. Feminine Hygiene/Haircare/Skin products

25. Thermal underwear
(Tops and bottoms)

26. Bow saws, axes and hatchets and Wedges (also, honing oil)

27. Aluminum foil Reg. and Heavy. Duty
(Great Cooking and Barter item)

28. Gasoline containers
(Plastic or Metal)

29. Garbage bags
(Impossible to have too many.)

30. Toilet Paper, Kleenex, paper towel

31. Milk - Powdered and Condensed
(Shake liquid every 3 to 4 months.)

32. Garden seeds (Non-hybrid) (A MUST)

33. Clothes pins/line/hangers (A MUST)

34. Coleman's Pump Repair Kit: 1(800) 835-3278

35. Tuna Fish (in oil)

36. Fire extinguishers
(or.. large box of Baking soda in every room...)

37. First aid kits

38. Batteries (all sizes...buy furthest-out for Expiration Dates)

39. Garlic, spices and vinegar, baking supplies

40. BIG DOGS (and plenty of dog food)

41. Flour, yeast and salt

42. Matches
("Strike Anywhere" preferred. Boxed, wooden matches will go first.)

43. Writing paper/pads/pencils/solar calculators

44. Insulated ice chests
(good for keeping items from freezing in Wintertime)

45. Work boots, belts, Levis and durable shirts

46. Flashlights/Light Sticks and torches, "No.76 Dietz" Lanterns

47. Journals, Diaries and Scrapbooks
(Jot down ideas, feelings, experiences: Historic times!)

48. Garbage cans Plastic
(great for storage, water, transporting - if with wheels)

49. Men's Hygiene: Shampoo, Toothbrush/paste, Mouthwash/floss, nail clippers, etc

50. Cast iron cookware (sturdy, efficient)

51. Fishing supplies/tools

52. Mosquito coils/repellent sprays/creams

53. Duct tape

54. Tarps/stakes/twine/nails/rope/spikes

55. Candles

56. Laundry detergent (Liquid)

57. Backpacks and Duffle bags

58. Garden tools and supplies

59. Scissors, fabrics and sewing supplies

60. Canned Fruits, Veggies, Soups, stews, etc.

61. Bleach
(plain, NOT scented: 4 to 6% sodium hypochlorite)

62. Canning supplies (Jars/lids/wax)

63. Knives and Sharpening tools: files, stones, steel

64. Bicycles...Tires/tubes/pumps/chains, etc.

65. Sleeping bags and blankets/pillows/mats

66. Carbon Monoxide Alarm (battery powered)

67. Board Games Cards, Dice

68. d-Con Rat poison, MOUSE PRUFE II, Roach Killer

69. Mousetraps, Ant traps and cockroach magnets

70. Paper plates/cups/utensils (stock up, folks...)

71. Baby Wipes, oils, waterless and Anti-bacterial soap
(saves a lot of water)

72. Rain gear, rubberized boots, etc.

73. Shaving supplies
(razors and creams, talc, after shave)

74. Hand pumps and siphons
(for water and for fuels)

75. Soy sauce, vinegar, bouillons/gravy/soup base

76. Reading glasses

77. Chocolate/Cocoa/Tang/Punch (water enhancers)

78. "Survival-in-a-Can"

79. Woolen clothing, scarves/ear-muffs/mittens

80. BSA - New 1998 - Boy Scout Handbook
(also, Leader's Catalog)

81. Roll-on Window Insulation Kit (MANCO)

82. Graham crackers, saltines, pretzels, Trail mix/Jerky

83. Popcorn, Peanut Butter, Nuts

84. Socks, Underwear, T-shirts, etc. (extras)

85. Lumber (all types)

86. Wagons and carts
(for transport to and from open Flea markets)

87. Cots and Inflatable Mattresses (for extra guests)

88. Gloves: Work/warming/gardening, etc.

89. Lantern Hangers

90. Screen Patches, glue, nails, screws, nuts and bolts

91. Teas

92. Coffee

93. Cigarettes

94. Wine/Liquors (for bribes, medicinal, etc.)

95. Paraffin wax

96. Glue, nails, nuts, bolts, screws, etc.

97. Chewing gum/candies

98. Atomizers (for cooling/bathing)

99. Hats and cotton neckerchiefs

100. Goats/chickens

http://standeyo.com/News_Files/INFO_Files/100.items.html

Sunday, August 03, 2008

THE U.S. ECONOMY

The Real State of the US Economy

Henry Paulson has lost the control over US finance


Global Research, August 2, 2008





When Henry Paulson agreed to leave his job as chairman of the powerful Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs to go to Washington as Treasury Secretary in 2006 he demanded extraordinary powers as de facto economic czar. He got it. Paulson is also head of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets -- the secretary of the treasury and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Working Group is the financial world's equivalent of the Pentagon war room. Paulson, not Fed chairman Bernanke, is the person running the Administration’s crisis management. And his recent actions indicate he has lost control as the snowballing problems from the semi-government mortgage companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to the collapse of the multi-trillion dollar market in Asset Backed Securities (ABS) to the real economy are compounding into the worst crisis since the 1930’s Great Depression.

‘The US banking system is sound…’

In an eerie echo of President Herbert Hoover in 1930, during a Presidential campaign against Roosevelt, following the stock market crash and collapse of numerous smaller banks, Paulson recently appeared on national TV to declare "our banking system is a safe and sound one." He added that the list of "troubled" banks "is a very manageable situation." In fact what he did not say was that the US bank deposit insurance fund, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has a list of problem banks that numbers 90. Not included on that list are banks such as Citigroup, until recently the largest bank in the world.

The statement is hardly reassuring. The California savings bank, IndyMac Bank which was declared insolvent a month ago was not on the FDIC list a week before it collapsed. The reality is the crisis created by "securitizing" millions of home mortgages into new financial instruments and selling the packages to pension funds and investors is unfolding like a snowball rolling down the Swiss Alps.

Indication of the lack of control is the statement just weeks ago by Paulson that "financial institutions must be allowed to fail." That was two weeks before Paulson went to Congress to ask for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." As I noted in my recent piece, Financial Tsunami: The Next Big Wave is Breaking: Fannie Mae Freddie Mac and US Mortgage Debt , those two private companies insured some $6 trillion worth of home mortgages, half the entire US mortgage debt. Paulson defended the request by calling Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae "the only functioning part of the home loan market."

That comes back to the statement about a "sound banking system". Can we have a sound banking system where the only functioning part is literally insolvent—its debts greater than its assets?

It is well known on Wall Street that some of the largest financial institutions have huge undeclared problems with Asset Backed Securities they have valued far above their worth to make their books look better than they are. The names Citigroup, Lehman Bros., Morgan Stanley, even Paulson’s old firm, Goldman Sachs and of course the inventor of sub-prime mortgage securitization, Merrill Lynch, all hold a huge percentage of what are called Level Three assets, these being assets where no one is willing to buy but the bank declares their worth based on "fantasy." In short the value of those core financial institutions of the US financial system is massively overvalued compared with their value were they forced to sell into the open market today. In a sobering aside, readers should not expect any serious economic remedies for the crisis from a President Barack Obama. Obama’s National Campaign Finance Chairman is Chicago real estate billionaire, Penny Pritzker, who is heir to among other things the Hyatt Hotels. It was Pritzker together with Merrill Lynch ten years ago who first developed the model for securitizing "sub-prime" real estate, the trigger for the current Financial Tsunami crisis.

Already Citigroup has been forced to go to Dubai hat in hand and ask for billions in cash. After it announced it would not need more capital. Now Citigroup just announced plans to sell some $500 billion more assets to raise funds. Is Citigroup really solvent is the question sober investors are asking. Similarly Merrill Lynch raised $6.6 billion from Kuwait Mizuho, stated it was fine and weeks later had to raise still more capital. Morgan Stanley sold a 10% share of the company to China International Corp.

The real economy contracting rapidly

Behind the reassuring statements from Paulson and others that the "worst is over" the reality of the credit collapse since August 2007 is a deepening economic contraction which I have said several times in this space will surpass the Great Depression of the 1929-1938 period. A goof friend who is an unemployed homebuilder in a prosperous part of Arizona just sent me the following list of US department retail store closures. It is worth noting that over 70% of the US GDP is consumer spending and that the entire Federal Reserve strategy of Alan Greenspan after the March 2000 collapse of the stock market bubble, was to bring US interest rates to their lowest levels since the 1930’s in order to stimulate consumer spending on credit, i.e. debt, to avoid "recession." Note the scale of the following store closings across America in recent weeks:

Ann Taylor closing 117 stores nationwide.

Eddie Bauer to close more stores after closing 27 stores in the first quarter.

Cache, a women’s retailer is closing 20 to 23 stores this year.

Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherines closing 150 stores nationwide

Talbots, J. Jill closing stores. Talbots will close all 78 of its kids and men's stores plus another 22 underperforming stores. The 22 stores will be a mix of Talbots women's and J. Jill.

Gap Inc. closing 85 stores

Foot Locker to close 140 stores

Wickes Furniture is going out of business and closing all of its stores. The 37-year-old retailer that targets middle-income customers, filed for bankruptcy protection last month.

Levitz - the furniture retailer, announced it was going out of business and closing all 76 of its stores in December. The retailer dates back to 1910.

Zales, Piercing Pagoda plans to close 82 stores by July 31 followed by closing another 23 underperforming stores.

Disney Store owner has the right to close 98 stores.

Home Depot store closings 15 of them amid a slumping US economy and housing market. The move will affect 1,300 employees. It is the first time the world's largest home improvement store chain has ever closed a flagship store.

CompUSA (CLOSED).

Macy's - 9 stores closed

Movie Gallery – video rental company plans to close 400 of 3,500 Movie Gallery

and Hollywood Video stores in addition to the 520 locations the video rental

chain closed last fall as part of bankruptcy.

Pacific Sunwear - 153 Demo stores closing

Pep Boys - 33 stores of auto parts supplier closing

Sprint Nextel - 125 retail locations to close with 4,000 employees following 5,000 layoffs last year.

J. C. Penney, Lowe's and Office Depot are all scaling back

Ethan Allen Interiors: plans to close 12 of 300 stores to cut costs.

Wilsons the Leather Experts – closing 158 stores

Bombay Company: to close all 384 U.S.-based Bombay Company stores.

KB Toys closing 356 stores around the United States as part of its bankruptcy reorganization.

Dillard's Inc. will close another six stores this year.

For anyone familiar with American shopping malls and retailing, this represents a staggering part of the daily economic life of the nation, from furniture stores to clothing to video rentals to leather. The process has only begun and neither major party Presidential candidate has dared to mention this on the ground economic reality, because they evidently have no solutions to offer that would not jeopardize their campaign finances. Obama is tied to not only Pritzker but also to Omaha billionaire, Warren Buffett and George Soros. McCain depends on the traditional money contributions of the Republican Party which demand permanent tax reform for highest income earners and a pro-bank laissez faire treatment of millions of homeowners facing home foreclosure and asset seizure by banks.

Banks across the country have severely cut back on loans, fearful of bad debts. That has aggravated the consumer collapse documented above. Hundreds of thousands of real estate brokers, small and large bankers, furniture workers and salespeople, and construction workers are unable to find work. Jobs are being cut wholesale and those working are often on reduced hours. Car sales in June plunged by 28% for Ford, 18% for General Motors and even 21% for Toyota which will mean more layoffs in coming weeks. This will be the next wave of unemployment.

The economic reality is not reflected in official US Commerce Department or Labor Department statistics. There the data is constantly being "revised" to hide the grim reality in an election year.

My good friend, economist John Williams of California, has meticulously tracked such "data revisions" for more than 25 years and found the manipulation of reality so alarming that he founded an independent subscriber service titled "Shadow Government Statistics" (http://www.shadowstats.com/ ), where he makes best estimate calculations of the reality not the official mythology.

By Williams’ calculations the US economy first entered recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, at the end of 2006. Ever since, the recession has deepened, dramatically so in the past 12 months. Little known is the fact that the Labor Department also publishes six different unemployment statistics from U1, U2 through to U6 being the most comprehensive. The reported "official unemployment" is the very narrowly defined U3 which stands at 5.5%. However, as Williams notes, U6 is the real measure and that officially shows 9.7% unemployed. His calculations put the figure at 13.7% actually unemployed and seeking work.

A personal account

The unemployed homebuilder from Arizona I mentioned above recently sent me the following personal note on the situation:

"Here is how it looks to people like me: Real estate dealings fuelled the economy in most areas of the country for the past decade or more. We’ve been in a market downturn for three years. We have seen the cost of doing business increase for builders, along with a big drop in buyers as everyone tightens their belts, or can’t sell existing homes. Many employers have gone under ending thousands of jobs. If they have a job people are worried about losing it. Driving long distances to work is not possible with gasoline costs double that of 2006. There has been a 40% drop in most peoples’ home equity worth. Many people are "underwater" on their homes, meaning they owe more than the market price is worth today. So many under-employed don’t show up in government unemployed statistics. Self employed like me never get counted."

The Arizona homebuilder continued, "Today nobody is building. Unsold home inventories are triple that of 2003. Banks no longer give easy credit for home buyers. Many realtors I know have gone two years without selling a home. Empty storefronts are becoming common. In many areas unemployment among construction trades people is 50% or more. Tens of thousands of illegal Mexicans who did most of the manual labor have returned to Mexico to find work. What now? Well, I do handyman projects of all sorts, big or small and make about 70-90% of what it takes to survive with a family of a wife and three young children. My savings make up the rest. That can’t go on for too much longer. We went from affluent and comfortable to nervous and broke with diminished opportunities in just three years. We used to be the middle class."

Saturday, August 02, 2008

YOU CAN NOT TRUST GERMANY

« U.S. presidential hopeful Barack Obama speaks to Berliners at the Victory Column, July 24.
(Barbara Sax/AFP/Getty Images)

Germany Is Rising; American Presidents Are Helping

July 29, 2008 | From theTrumpet.com

The next American administration could be the one to watch—and help—Berlin become a dominating world power once again. By Philip Nice

Presidential hopeful Barack Obama spoke in Berlin last Thursday in front of 200,000 Germans. Some of his fans clung to lampposts, girls dyed their hair red, white and blue, others waved American flags, and enthusiastic supporters interrupted the speech, chanting “Pres-i-dent! Pres-i-dent!” Quite a change in a country where the American flag is sort of a sore spot.

The presumed Democrat nominee for the presidency and the source of “Obamania” is hailed as a superstar in Germany, where 76 percent of the populace supports him—some giving him the “rock star treatment,” some treating him like a “messiah.”

Obama stopped in Paris and London afterward, but it was Berlin’s environs that provided the stage for what was hailed as his keynote foreign-policy address, the pinnacle of his globetrotting tour through not only Europe but also the Middle East beforehand. Obama choosing Berlin over London and Paris is a strong signal that Gemany is already now one of the most important nations in Europe—if not the most.

Why did Berliners receive Obama so jubilantly? First, because his rhetoric and superstar ability to draw crowds is not wasted on Germans. Second, because German pride has taken a beating under the current administration due to transatlantic disagreements, most notably over Iraq.

And third, because he wants them to rise up.

Beyond choosing Berlin as his stage, a close look at what specifics Obama did get into during the speech reveals a view toward raising Germany to a stronger world power status, something that, from a historical perspective, should be somewhat unsettling. Germany is as eager as anybody to play a more significant role in the world, but Obama’s specific words on the future use of the Bundeswehr made even the Germans seem a little taken aback.

Obama first recounted the Allied airlift that saved the city from being swallowed up by communism, then touched on such “dangerous currents” as terrorism, global warming, nuclear weapons proliferation and drugs, calling for “old allies” to tear down walls between each other and “listen to each other, learn from each other and most of all, trust each other.”

“America has no better partner than Europe,” Obama said, to a round of applause.

Then he moved from applause-line platitudes to some of the only real specifics in the speech: Afghanistan, the Taliban, al Qaeda and “your troops.” Returning to the subject of global terrorism, the senator called for “a new and global partnership” to dismantle terrorist networks. “This is the moment,” Obama said, “when we must renew our resolve to rout the terrorists who threaten our security in Afghanistan and the traffickers who sell drugs on your streets. No one welcomes war ….”

Judging by clap frequency and volume, the Germans weren’t as enthused about this part, but Obama continued. “I recognize the enormous difficulties in Afghanistan,” he said. “But my country and yours have a stake in seeing that nato’s first mission beyond Europe’s borders is a success.” “[F]or our shared security,” he said, “the work must be done. America can’t do this alone. The Afghan people need our troops—and your troops.”

You can watch the tape. Compared to earlier reactions, the applause was only a smattering. For a long time after World War ii, active German troops was a taboo, to say the least. Obama went on to say, “In this century we need a strong European Union that deepens the security and prosperity of this continent—while extending a hand abroad.” Apparently, in enlisting Germany and Europe in a more powerful and forceful role, the presidential candidate is more enthusiastic than the Germans themselves.

But here is the larger significance: We are not just talking about Obama. Presumed Republican nominee John McCain also feels that America should step back and that Germany and Europe should shoulder more of the load of policing the world. Late last year, he wrote, “Americans should welcome the rise of a strong, confident European Union.” In fact, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton also supports American reliance on a more powerful Europe. So here is the real significance: It is not that Obama—or McCain, or Clinton—supports Germany playing a larger role in world strategic affairs, but the fact that this is a shared principle pervasive throughout Washington’s power circles.

But this consensus is not a new fad.

Think back: Former President Bill Clinton was awarded the Charlemagne Prize in 2000. That’s the prize for the person who, more than anyone else, renders “distinguished service on behalf of European unification,” and it’s named after a man who did so by conquest and slaughter, drawing blood in war after war after war.

But American presidential support for German and European empowerment goes back much further. The two most famous presidential addresses in Berlin were John F. Kennedy’s in 1963 and Ronald Reagan’s in 1987, both of which bolstered Germany in an effort to blunt the perceived larger threat: the Soviets. Decades before that, Harry S. Truman oversaw the incredible airlift that kept Berlin from becoming a groaning city languishing under the Communist heel—that was just three years after Adolf Hitler issued his last order to the German army and people. These efforts appeared to yield great victories. They are still hailed as such today.

But the best-laid plans of pundits and presidents often go awry. Ultimately, even the sharpest diplomacy and the most intelligent and powerful strategies developed by arguably the smartest men in the world are all inexorably leading to one final round of failure: World War iii.

The Bible forecasts that Europe will indeed continue to unify around Germany. It will also continue to develop its economic, political and military power precipitously until it becomes far stronger than any Washington strategist can now imagine. Think World War ii levels—and then some. When the new German Reich begins to assert its strength, the memories and history represented by the city in which Obama spoke and the Victory Column of Prussian conquest under which he stood will come rushing back. The world—one more time—will be plunged into war.

Although no one could forecast it now; although all the analysts and planners and commentators see a unified Europe as an economic-based infant political entity at best, an almost-dead pseudo union at worst; and although it appears that America has no better partner, Germany will do it again.

In the Bible, God condemns the brutality with which Germany conquers its victims, but He also says that Germany’s destructiveness is the rod of His anger, correcting rebellious, sinful nations that will listen to Him no other way. Germans are no worse a people than any other. The Berliners’ subdued reaction to calls for more German militarism indicates that—they have not completely forgotten World War ii yet. But the “mutable Germans,” as Luigi Barzini wrote, have an intrinsic ability to suddenly rally around one strong leader, and—under the wrong leader and the wrong ideology—to combine into the greatest national war-making machine on the planet. Almost nothing can stand up to the German blitzkrieg.

In spite of what comparatively sedate current conditions indicate, Berlin and its European empire-in-waiting will soon transform into a war-making power bloc unlike any in history—except its past incarnations, a pair of which plunged the world into global war twice in the past century. This time, however, it will be armed with nuclear missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

And no one sees it coming. In fact, policy-makers and presidential candidates are cultivating a stronger Germany! And why shouldn’t they? Europe has Western values. Its militaries are still outclassed by American might. It is democratic (although every successive EU treaty makes it less so). And Europe likes us far better than the Middle East—or Asia—does. If you don’t know what the Bible forecasts, and if you regard the world wars as ancient history, it may make good sense to do exactly what the American leadership is doing.

Yet raising up Germany will end in America’s downfall.

This quandary cannot and will not be solved by more diplomacy, different strategies, a Reaganite conservative or even a new Churchill. As Gen. Douglas Macarthur told us, “It must be of the spirit if we are to save the flesh.” Mankind cannot rule itself! For all our tactics and maneuverings, we are writing an indelible lesson in human ineffectualness and helplessness apart from God. The same God who prophesied almost every major current event you see in your daily headlines is about to allow us to experience the ultimate aversion therapy, the final catastrophic conflagration of our own making.

But that’s not the end. There is good news! God is letting us burn ourselves so that He can use this great lesson to teach us to listen to Him and to love Him and obey Him. And just as sure as America has risen and Germany will rise, mankind will come face to face with its own failures and finally turn to God, ultimately entering the greatest nation and government ever: God’s Family.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

"EREV RAV" TRAITORS

Erev Rav

"The entire 974 generations (Hagiga 14.) which are `Erev Rav which are the souls from the world of chaos, G-d transplants them every generation, and they are the bold-faced of the generation. Our Sages said that in the period of "messiah's footsteps" impudence will become great... and the `erev rav will return to be the shepherds of Israel" - Safra ditz'ni`utha, chapter 1, beginning with the words "They were not watching" (3).

"You should know that there are five kinds of `erev rav. The first kind are argumentative and libelous people; the second kind are those who pursue passion and fornication; the third kind are those who are deceitful, who pretend to be righteous but whose hearts are not whole. The fourth kind are those who pursue honor in order to make a name for themselves; the fifth kind are those who pursue money... and the argumentative kind are the equivalent of all of them: they are called `Amalekim, and the son of Dovid will not come until they have passed out of this world, for it is of them that we recite timche et zekher `Amalek - "You shall erase the memory of Amalek" - Adderet Eliyahu, commentary on Deut. 1:1 (325), his words being based on Zohar 1:25, 27; 3:125: and see the Gaon's commentary on Tikkunei Zohar 97, pp. 86,91.

Adam, the first Man, sinned because of the souls of the `erev rav he contained - they caused him to sin. Similarly, Moshe Rabbeinu... because of the "erev rav" came to make mistakes. And these are the `erev rav that they desire to be the spiritual authorities and of great status and jump forward to teach (religious conduct) though they have not reached that level - Yahel Ohr, commentary on Zohar 1:28: beginning with uMoshe b'gineihu.

"Arguments which are not for the sake of Heaven come from the Erev Rav, those who jump forward to teach and to take the crown of `let us make for ourselves a name' - Tikkunei Zohar, p. 91, beginning and who caused [it] (v. Maimonides, Hilkhot Talmud Torah 5:4: `and every knowledgeable person who has not reached the level of teaching (spiritual conduct) and teaches is wicked, idiotic and rude... These are the small intellectuals who have not studied Torah as much as they should, but try to make a great impression on the boors and the people of their own town, and so they jump up and sit at the head of the line of sages who come to discuss cases and teach Israel. These are the ones who are argumentative, they destroy the world and extinguish the light of Torah, as they sabotage the vineyard of the L-rd of Hosts. Of them Solomon said: "ehezu lanu shu`alim, shu`alim k'tannim m'habb'lim k'ramim" - "grasp for us the foxes, little foxes that destroy the vineyards".

"All the exile, the destruction of the Temple and all the troubles - it all results from Moshe Rabbeinu having accepted the `erev rav. All the bold-faced and wicked people of the generation are from them, i.e., their souls are theirs (that is to say this is not physically inherited by lineage, but rather a mere reincarnation of souls), in that they are a reincarnation of them. This is what was meant in the Gemara, hani me`erev rav qa'ati - these spring from the erev rav - the Gaon on Tikkunei HaZohar 97, beginning v'aleihu. (Rabbi Yitzhak Hotner also commented on this, in "Pahad Yitzhak", Pesah, pp. 246-247.)

"Of the Amalekites some were leaders of the Israelites in their galut, their exile, acting violently and robbing the Jewish poor, and they are from the side of the generation of the Flood... and the bad separated out in the `erev rav, and when Moshe peace be unto him received them [Zohar I/27b] their souls intermingled with those of Israel, and this is the fourth exile... They are the fallen ones, who follow around after loose women and after bribes of this world. They are warriors, men of great name, all of whose deeds are done in order to enhance their reputation. They are spirits who do not desire to bestow kindness and charity for masters of Torah; they are giants who ridicule Torah scholars" - Tikkunei Zohar, p. 194.

"And all the exile and destruction of the Temple and all the tribulations - it is all [the result] of Moshe Rabbeinu's accepting the `erev rav, and all the brash and evil men of the generation are of them, that is to say from their souls, that they are an incarnation of them." - Tikkunei Zohar, p. 193.

"Just like roses are sown amongst the thorns, which are a protection for the roses, so the Jewish people are in exile amongst the `erev rav in order to speed up their redemption, and for this reason the thorns have not ceased - Tikkunei Zohar p. 54 [this means that the troubles we are suffering from them serve to speed up the time of the end].

"Eisav and Yishmael are entwined in Avraham and Yitzhak, but the `erev rav are entwined in Yaakov; they are more problematic to Israel and to the shekhina, for they are the leaven in the dough - for all the misers and those who do not support the Torah are from them" - Tikkunei Zohar, p. 35.

"The leaven in the dough" (B'rakhot 17a) is the `erev rav, who are worse than the nations of the world [who kill us], because the `erev rav stop Israel from performing the mitzvot (meaning: he who misleads his friend has done a greater act of evil than he who kills him - B'midbar Rabba 21:5) - Imre No`am, B'rakhot 17a. Ohr Yahel 3/232, the place beginning: the leaven in the dough.

...And see the profundity of their statements made about the blight, and yet there is a fourth kind: `and they have mingled (in Hebrew, Vayitarvu, related to the term Erev Rav) with the nations and learned from their deeds' - these are themselves Jews who adhered to the `erev rav and became like them...and this fourth kind is the most difficult of them all, and they are our brothers who have soured" - his commentary to B'rakhot 54:

And in the book of Tikkunim of Zohar Hadash (p. 54) we find written: "As for Yaakov, because he foresaw the pressure of the last exile in the end of days, the Torah says And Yaakov was very much afraid and felt troubled, and he divided up the holy nation in exile into three divisions, and he placed the maidservants and their children first, and Leah and her children behind them, and Rachel and Yosef last "

And the Gaon wrote there:

The three divisions are as follows: the `erev rav, the good simple people amongst them, and the scholars. The maidservants and their children first - these are the `erev rav made by Lilit, the bad maidservant, of whom it is said: And if a maidservant should inherit her lady, and also her sons, who are the leaders of the holy nation in the last exile, as it is said: Her foes became her leaders, as it was said in "Raaya Mehemna" (Zohar 3/125).

Leah and her children behind them - they are the good simple people.

Rachel and Yosef last of all - they are the scholars of whom Rachel is the chief of the house... They are last because they are downtrodden and debased, as it is said: Those who fear sin will be despised, and the wisdom of the scribes [alt. translated as counters] will be rotten, as he went on in R.M. (ibid., and see Sanhedrin 98.). See: Leshem, Shevo V'Ahlama, Introduction and Contents, p. 46, explanation.

Now it is clear why in Kol HaTor (chapter II, part II, section II) R. Hillel of Shiklov brings in the name of the Gaon: "The general role of two Messiahs, the messiah son of Yosef and the messiah son of Dovid, throughout the generations is one of defense and war against the three leading husks - Eisav, Yishmael and Erev Rav... The `erev rav is our greatest foe, he is what separates the two Messiahs, The `erev rav husk operates only by deceit and indirectly. Therefore the war against the `erev rav is the most difficult and most bitter, and we must use all our remaining forces to win this war. Whoever is not engaged in actively fighting the `erev rav becomes an automatic partner to the husk of the `erev rav, and whoever this may be it would be better for him had he not been created.

The main force of the `erev rav is at the gates of Jerusalem by the entrance of the city (The Great Period, 503-504).

This seems to be a shift and a change in the definition of `erev rav from what we have seen in the other quotations (full of desire, argumentative, honor-seeking, hurrying to give instruction though they are unqualified to do so, etc.). It would seem that this point mentioned by "Kol HaTor" of the resistance to the realization of the redemption of the Jews was not expressed in the other utterances by the Gaon regarding the `erev rav. This, however, is what R. Hillel of Shiklov explains to us: the nation of Israel has suffered so many tribulations during its horrible exile (see MahaRal, Netzah Yisrael, the beginning of chapter 49), and our heart boils over with distress at the memory of our terrible debasement, both in spirituality and in materiality. How, now, can there arise out of our nation Sanballats to destroy and disrupt the restoration of the nation of Israel in its land? The only explanation possible is that they really are full of desire, argumentative, proud etc. - lacking true links with the Jewish people or with the Torah of Israel.

We must not take into consideration that some of them do actually have some superficial knowledge of Torah (see Adderet Eliyahu to Deut. 32:20) for My people is foolish, they do not know Me... they are wise in causing evil, but know not how to do good (Jeremiah 4:22). That is, if they are not G-d-fearing - they do not know Me - they will turn the words of the living G-d into lies and deceit. The proof that their hearts are impure is that they are not distressed at the disaster of Yosef (Amos 6:6). They do not feel sorrow at the disaster of the entire Jewish people, though they chatter Torah-like platitudes of love of Israel. "And they heal the disaster of My nation too easily, saying `Peace, peace!' - but there is no peace!" (Jeremiah 6:14). Further proof, instead of quarreling with the nations of the world who cause us distress, they choose to argue and quarrel with the faithful of Israel - all by virtue of those very same characteristics defined by the Zohar (I/25).

All this was seen at the time by R. Hillel of Shiklov. He knew how the words of the Zohar and those of the Gaon, his rabbi, could co-exist with contemporary problems. The false virtues of the hypocrites and deceivers are what cause them to put barriers and other delays on the path to the rebuilding of Jerusalem and the redemption of Israel. Really, all the words of this chapter correspond to one another extremely precisely - to whoever understands.

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