Special Reports : World War IV
Posted by Sean Osborne on 2006/7/22 6:36:14 ( )Ultimately, and with little forewarning, World War IV in all of its mass destructiveness will arrive on our shores - in the American heartland. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, HAMAS and other various proxy stooges of all nationalities or citizenships can and will strike our apparent national ambivalence to this direct threat.
See UPDATE below main article.
By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairs
22 July 2006: The current military situation in the Middle East is EVERYONE'S worst nightmare - whether they individually or collectively realize it at this moment or not. I say this due to the fact that, believe it or not, some here in the United States don’t believe this war will amount to much of anything for American’s to be concerned about. They do not realize or accept that we are engaged in World War IV. (I classify the so-called “Cold War” as World War III.)
They are wrong, and probably dead wrong.
To be sure, this is not just another Arab versus Israel war. This is an existential war. This is a war specifically begun via proxy as designed and prepared for by the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria and their military allies. Israel is both the initial target and the ultimate objective.
So is the United States of America.
America is an enemy objective and a part of this war because we have been targeted by the Iranian regime, their proxy terrorist forces and allied nations due to our support of Israel.
As long as America stands behind Israel as the arsenal of democracy and best hope of freedom the enemy axis powers know full well they cannot hope to defeat Israel on the battlefield. The Iranian plan has always been to ignite the two front war in Israel, and then to hit the US with a haymaker from our blindside. Their plan, the Hojjatieh sect of Shi’a Islam plan, has always been to ignite an Armageddon-like scenario, to collapse “Anglo-Saxon civilization” as an intregal part of the overall objective to achieve hegemony over all of the Middle East, Islam and the oil beneath those lands. Thus in executing these objectives nothing less than World War IV will result.
The Order of Battle
The events in Gaza and Northern Israel were the well coordinated triggering events which launched this war. The rapid escalation and weaponry brought to bear are indicative of the battle plan prepared well in advance of hostilities. Recent engagements illustrate this in an unambiguous manner.
A week ago an Israeli Navy Sa’ar-5 class corvette, the “Ahi Hanit”, was struck by an Iranian C-802 shore-to-ship variant of the Communist Chinese designed YJ-8 family of cruise missiles. Iran purchased at least sixty C-802’s from the Chinese PLA. The C-802 missile (NATO Codename: CSS-N-8 SACCADE) was launched under inertial guidance from the Lebanese littoral most likely by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) troops. Most open-source military reports state that this cruise missile is radar guided. True, all indications are that the C-802 has a J-band (10 – 20 Gigahertz) terminal active radar guidance seeker in the warhead.
What has not been widely reported, however, is that an Iranian submarine, which I believe to be a Russian-made SSK Kilo-class electric-diesel boat, was nearby at the time. Did this Iranian sub provide some form of terminal guidance to the C-802 missile? It’s possible. That the sub was in the area of combat operations prior to the execution of the battle plan also speaks to the detailed preparations made by Iran. There are no reports that I am aware of which reported this sub transiting north-bound through the Suez Canal. The lack of this information in open-sources means that the Iranian sub had quite a long voyage around the African continent to arrive on station prior to hostilities. My theory is that upon reaching the Strait of Gibraltar the Iranian sub performed a maneuver that is known as “degaussing.” It parked itself directly underneath an eastbound commercial freighter and made the run through the strait completely under electrical power. It then continued along a 100 fathom line along the North African coast to the area of Tunisia and on to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Just about 48 hours ago I learned of the first open-source report on the detection of this submarine. The CBN report stated that a U.S. Air Force RC-135V/W "Rivet Joint" reconnaissance aircraft detected the Iranian submarine with its very sensitive Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) sensor array. The CBN report then commented on the full-extent of the electronic surveillance capabilities of the “Rivet Joint” aircraft by noting its sensors had also detected Iranian ballistic missile activities and shipments of these missiles to Lebanon.
In the past couple of days Israeli SOF had located an Iranian Zelzal-2 (Earthquake) short range ballistic missile (SRBM) on its launcher in Lebanon. The missile, with a maximum range of about 250 miles, was prepped and ready to launch. An immediate air strike guided by on-the-ground Israeli Special Forces laser designators was radioed in. The air strike on the missile launcher threw the Zelzal airborne momentarily and ultimately impacting the ground a very short distance away. Scratch one Zelzal. More Iranian Zelzal’s were targeted in the exact same manner as they crossed from Syria into Lebanon. When you read of or see broadcast reports of Israeli air strikes on bridges between Lebanon and Syria along the Beirut-Damascus highway and other avenues into Lebanon they are specifically intended to halt the flow of such war material. However, conservative estimates are that enemy combatants in Lebanon had at least 200 of these Iranian ballistic missiles prior to hostilities erupting.
The Current Situation Report (SITREP)
The war has the Israeli Defense Forces fully engaged, although not to the level of their entire strategic depth, but fairly close to that level. The Israeli’s are prepared for any battlefield eventuality, including the use of WMD. In fact, Israeli ground forces are about to move into southern Lebanon on a large scale combat operation to engage all enemy combatants. This may include Lebanese army forces who reportedly will side themselves with Hezbollah and IRGC forces. The Syrian military has been making moves of its own by targeting its own missile forces on Israeli targets. One can reasonably expect that this is totally unacceptable to the Israeli High Command and a pre-emptive strike against Syrian targets is an imminent probability. The point of all this is to illustrate that this war is just getting to the boiling point and its escalation to full-scale regional warfare can happen within hours or minutes of your reading this article. I suspect that this war will involve the first use of weapons of mass destruction in the near term against Israel with the resultant immediate Israeli retaliatory response directed against the Syrian capital city Damascus.
Can Israeli pre-emptive strikes against rear-echelon targets in Iran be far behind? And for how long will US and Coalition forces in the CENTCOM AO remain unengaged in the war given the Iranian strategic objectives alluded to above?
Ultimately, and with little forewarning, World War IV in all of its mass destructiveness will arrive on our shores - in the American heartland. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, HAMAS and other various proxy stooges of all nationalities or citizenships can and will strike our apparent national ambivalence to this direct threat. The Northeast Intelligence Network has been consistently warning of this inevitability for a very long time, and I must now repeat the admonition to the whole of America: If you have not been vigilant in your local community before, you absolutely must be so engaged at this time. America is a primary target, a major military objective of Iran, its proxies and allies. Your survival depends upon the level of vigilance and preparations you may or may not have bothered to exert up to this minute. Personal responsibility, prudent planning and preparations are all that stand between you and your family, indeed your own neighborhood and region of the nation, and the war which is now in progress. God help us all.
This special report has resulted in an overwhelming flood of emails requesting me to define for individuals and families what I meant by being "engaged at this time". The following are my observations and recommendations in this regard.
First, foremost and paraphrasing my favorite ex-Green Beret, John Moore (a/k/a The Liberty Man) :
1. The U.S. government cannot and will not protect individuals or families. Our government agencies are doing the best job they can to keep our country safe. However, no government agency (including FEMA) is responsible for a comprehensive defense program.
2. Each individual business and family must make their own preparations to be safe from the consequences of a terrorist attack. Please consider:
a.) We have "just in time" delivery of everything from auto parts to life sustaining pharmaceuticals.
b.) Every part of our infrastructure is a potential target.
c.) A break anywhere in this infrastructure (telecommunications, transportation, utilities) can cause the whole system to fail. Consequently, every citizen is at risk to suffer the consequences of a terrorist attack happening anywhere in the country.
Okay, that stated as suscinctly as possible, what do you do individually to prepare yourself, your family, your group of friends, your neighborhood?
I suggest the following 8-point minimum regimen be executed ASAP in an effort to transition from a possible victim to a potential survivor:
1.) Non-perishable foodstuffs and fruit juices or reconsitutable/concentrated juices or milk for a minimum of 30 - 60 days sustainment per individual.
2.) Lot's of H2O in cases of individual servings or large bottles and 5-gallon containers. As much as you can possibly collect.
3.) A portable generator, batteries for every device in the house which may require them.
4.) Communications. Hand crank radios like the small Grundig ($20.00) sold by Radio Shack, or any battery operated solid state radio.
5.) Ammo for your personal firearm(s). Execute your Second Amendment rights. Hopefully you don't live in New Jersey as I do.
6.) Fuels: Gasoline or Diesel as you require. Get it now gas/diesel are currently at anywhere from $3.05/$2.75 per gallon. I would expect these prices will increasesubstantially in the very near term - a direct reflection of the Iranian desire for $100 per barrel crude. Fill your 5 gallon cans now if at all possible.
7.) An evacuation plan and lay-up points enroute. In case your area is particularly hard hit and an evacuation is ordered by national or state authorities, have a designated place to go and coordinated plans with fellow travellers if at all possible. Strength is found in numbers.
8.) Keep your bank account well as fed as you are able. If terrorists hit the electrical grid or if an EMP device is utilized during hostilities you will still need to pay any bills. Whatever is not in the bank have liquid as cash-on-hand. ATM's and banks will probably get swamped or could be inoperable for a short time by those who did not prudently plan or prepare ahead of time. The "snooze, you lose" mentality applies here.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and pray for personal guidance from God.
Move Out and Execute as much as you are able which applies to your own situation as quickly as you can "Git R Done".