Olmert made his own mess
PM cannot dispute Winograd's findings because he appointed him Published: 05.01.07, 13:15 / Israel Opinion
The bottom line is Ehud Olmert has to go. Not because of the failures of the war, but because should he remain in office following such a report by such a commission of inquiry - a commission whose members he himself appointed - it is doubtful whether we will ever see accountability about anything around here. Israel will festively be joining the Third World.
Yet despite this, he may survive politically. Not because the war was successful, but rather, because the alternative, even according to the commission's standards, is not much better. Not Bibi, not Tzipi and not even Ehud Barak.
He is slated to remain in office amid a hostile public mood, on borrowed time. To paraphrase a well-known saying; the prime minister can fight part of the people part of the time, but he cannot fight all of it all the time. Ultimately, the public's sentiments will be translated into a political maneuver. Winograd gave the political establishment an extension until August. He is implicitly threatening that in his final report, due to be submitted in August, he will recommend Olmert's dismissal.
Ironically, of all the war's shortcomings the most destructive move from Olmert's point of view, was his insistence not to appoint a state commission of inquiry. He garnered all his political clout to prevent the president of the Supreme Court from determining his fate. We can only guess how a report compiled by Aharon Barak or Dorit Beinish would have been phrased, but one thing is certain: It would not have been any worse than the report compiled by the members of the Winograd Commission.
In consultations held by Olmert with his aides last autumn, in the midst of the debate over the commission, a row broke out. Dov Weisglass recommended opting for a state commission of inquiry, saying Olmert had no choice. Uri Shani and Tal Zilberstein said absolutely no. Olmert decided. He knows how to make decisions. The problem, as fully revealed during the war, is that he doesn't always make the right decisions.
And thus, after Olmert made the decision, and his legal advisors examined, disqualified and approved, the commission of inquiry was established: Five honest and respectable people, three of them over 80 years old.
Age is said to soften things. It is doubtful whether this is true at all; it definitely didn't hold true in this case. Members of the commission, just like many veteran Israelis, view Israel's reality with a sense of disappointment, criticism, and often, bitterness. They have acquired plenty of experience in life, and therefore they place extraordinary importance on experience.
Despite this, members of the commission underwent daily attacks in the media for allegedly cooperating with Olmert. They became nervous. A state commission of inquiry would have been spared such allegations.
Olmert is disputing the severity of the commission's phrasing, some of its arguments and the wisdom of its recommendations. Nonetheless, he can't say a word about the report; he made his bed with his own hands. On the contrary: He has to appear as one who will execute every word of recommendation in the report. Winograd is his probation officer.
Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann, who doesn't get it, came out with a learned attack of the report at the Kadima party ministerial meeting Monday evening. "There's not much to implement in it," Friedmann concluded, taking a heavy blow at Olmert's key argument that the cabinet must remain in office to avoid a political crisis, which would prevent anyone from implementing the report's conclusions.
Unprecedented allegations
Did the Winograd Commission really place the resignation pistol on Olmert's desk? The report, which stands out with its clarity for the most part, relates to this issue rather vaguely. On the one hand, it brandishes Olmert (alongside Amir Peretz and Dan Halutz) with a stamp of failure for which there is no pardon. It accuses him of acting impulsively, ignorantly, mismanaging the decision-making process, setting unrealistic war objectives, and lacking proper judgment.
Never has a commission of inquiry leveled such profound, sweeping allegations at a prime minister.
On the other hand, the report expresses reservations regarding the eagerness to see dismissals.
In a footnote to clause 17 in the conclusions chapter (note 8, page 181 in the printed Hebrew version) the commission states: "There is a tendency in Israeli culture to reward every admission of error with dismissal. Only those who don't act don't err. Errors should be treated differentially, and of course should be subjected to the extent and severity of the error. A culture that doesn't enable those who have erred to continue in their posts in certain cases is not a culture that can learn, and it is likely to lose its most experienced people just for the sake of allowing those who have not yet erred to repeat the errors that would have been otherwise avoided by those who had already erred."
Olmert clung to this footnote Monday evening as though he had stepped on a great treasure.
Supreme Court Justice Meir Shamgar, who headed two prominent commissions of inquiry in the past, one on the Hebron massacre and the other on Rabin's murder, avoided going too far in his investigations. The Winograd Commission took the opposite course. Its full report is a far-reaching, courageous and pretentious attempt to change our political culture.
It aspires for a different leadership; a compact cabinet, whose ministers have the adequate knowledge and experience needed in their posts; a leadership that intelligently seeks assistance from experts from opposing camps; that discusses in depth the issues on which it votes, and whose sessions are kept confidential without being leaked.
There is no such government, and there never will be. The model the commission's members saw before them may have existed in the time of the Greek philosopher Plato, but it does not exist in political establishments running for elections. At least not in Israel.
This doesn't change the fact that Olmert made a serious mistake when he chose to appoint Amir Peretz to the post of defense minister, and Peretz erred terribly when he jumped at the offer. The commission has rightfully said that the combination of a hasty and inexperienced prime minister, an inexperienced defense minister who shows no interest in the material presented to him, and a chief of staff mired in his own concepts is destructive. In fact, it is pointing an accusing finger at all three: You are charlatans.
Is Bibi better?
In two days from now, Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to appear on stage at the Rabin Square as one of the leaders of a rally calling on Olmert to step down. If Netanyahu reads the report right through, he will find some scathing words about the conception he advanced as the finance minister by contending that Israel could allow itself to cut back on its ground forces because there is no war in the offing.
When he quotes what the report says regarding Olmert's lack of experience, he should recall his own self-confidence when he entered the Prime Minister's Office in 1996, despite possessing no experience.
Tzipi Livni, who many in the Kadima ranks are counting on, will find an unflattering comment about her lack of political experience in the report. Ehud Barak will find criticism, albeit polite, of his policy of restraint that avoided response to Hizbullah provocations and allowed it to grow stronger. When Barak reads the harsh criticism regarding the decision-making process in Olmert's cabinet, perhaps he should recall the decision-making process in his own cabinet and office.
The commission, similar to the Agranat Commission, places considerable importance on the establishment of a serious National Security Council. It is right in doing so, of course. However, its members should have asked themselves why such a powerful NSC wasn't established thus far. This is not so incidental: A NSC is the right institution on paper, yet in real life, it's very crowded next to Olmert's ear, and any further addition would involve endless disputes over powers and access.
Monday evening, two hours after publication of the report, US President George W. Bush announced his support for Olmert. Olmert was happy: It was a ray of light on a dark day. I suggested that in appreciation of this gesture he should suggest that Bush invite the Winograd Commission to investigate the war in Iraq.
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Livni, Peres, Mofaz Lead the Field to Replace Olmert as Prime Minister
DEBKfile Exclusive Report
May 1, 2007, 11:05 PM (GMT+02:00)
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The resignation on live television of minister of trade and commerce, Eytan Cabel, Labor, declaring Ehud Olmert must go as he had lost the country’s confidence, was the first open crack in the government coalition. It occurred Tuesday morning, May 1, less than 24 hours after the Winograd commission handed down its harsh condemnation of Olmert, defense minister Amir Peretz and chief of staff, Lt. Gen Dan Halutz, for their handling of the Lebanon War.
But behind the scenes and its leader’s back, Kadima’s coalition chairman Avigdor Yitzhaki scurried around the ranks, front man for one of the key contenders for the succession, foreign minister Tzipi Livni.
The prime minister’s other deserters included vice premier Shimon Peres, Israel Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman and most of Labor, including the three contenders for the party leadership, former PM Ehud Barak, Ami Ayalon and Ophir Pines-Paz.
That was only the first wave to batter against Olmert’s defenses.
Another wave threatened Thursday, April 3: The Knesset has been called into emergency session to consider the Winograd report; so too has the ruling Kadima faction. Foreign minister Tzipi Livni has held silent so far but is expected to join the chorus demanding that Olmert step down.
Hundreds of thousands of Israeli demonstrators are expected to tell him to go home at a mass rally in Tel Aviv Thursday night, May 3, called by the reservists’ movement and bereaved families. Residents of the southern towns of Sderot and Beersheba and Haifa in the north are slogging on foot to join Thursday’s rally, amid impromptu protest demonstrations.
The coalition chairman’s talks with government factions Tuesday not only canvassed support for a mutiny against the prime minister, but also explored which Kadima candidate could draw enough support to hold the government together. Above all, the ruling party wants to avoid a general election little more than a year after it was voted into office.
The foreign minister’s candidacy for prime minister is problematic. She is not popular with Labor or the ultra-religious Shas, two members of the government coalition.
Yitzhaki’s efforts to oust Olmert could therefore lead to Kadima’s candidate ending up as Shimon Peres or transport minister Shaul Mofaz, a former defense minister, rather than the foreign minister.
Peres is quietly working three channels:
First, he is selling himself to the second rank in Kadima and Labor as the only candidate capable of preserving national unity at a time of grave danger. His lobbyists also argue that because he is an octogenarian, he will not stay long and is therefore the ideal stabilizing agent to carry the country through the crisis of transition.
Second, he has reached out the discredited defense minister, Labor leader Amir Peretz, asking for his support in return for a helping hand in the Labor leadership primaries at the end of the month.
Third, his agents are in secret talks with the Israel Beitenu leader, Avigdor Lieberman, warning him that if the government falls, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu will be reinstated in the prime minister’s office.
The least active candidate and the best qualified for handling a security emergency is Shaul Mofaz, former defense minister and chief of staff. He would need the backing of Shas and Israeli Beitenu to beat the other contenders to the post.
The third party undermining Olmert on the quiet is Ehud Barak. DEBKAfile sources report that it was he who signaled Eytan Kabel to quit the Olmert government and thus set off the wave of political turbulence which has pinnjed the prime minister to the wall.
The fourth of Olmert’s active opponents is Lieberman. He discreetly sparked a revolt in Kadima by ordering two Russian representative lawmakers, Marina Solodkin and Mikhail Nudelman, to hoist the flag of mutiny in the ruling party and call on its leader to quit.
Opposition leader, former Likud prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, has played no party in the upheaval, much of which was staged to avert an early election.
According to the latest opinion poll, a general poll now would gain his Likud 36 Knesset seats out of 120 and probable victory.
But even Olmert's downfall will not end the turbulence.
While the partial Winograd report presented Monday harshly condemned the way the war was conducted by the prime minister, defense minister and chief of staff, it made no specific recommendation for their resignation. The final report due out in August is expected to rectify this omission and name new names, including those of prime ministerial hopefuls.
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Israeli foreign minister joins calls for Olmert resignation
POSTED: 10:47 a.m. EDT, May 2, 2007
Story Highlights
• Tzipi Livni says Olmert should make "personal decision" to resign• Report said Olmert was too quick to go to war, defense minister inexperienced
• Olmert called for patience, asked his critics to "slow down"
JERUSALEM (CNN) -- Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said Wednesday she has told Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert he should resign.
She added it is a "personal decision" for Olmert, who is under fire after an interim report released Monday blamed the prime minister for rushing into last summer's war with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
The head of Olmert's Kadima Party political coalition also called for his resignation after an independent investigative commission placed heavy blame on Olmert for mistakes he made in last summer's month-long war with Lebanon.
"I am trying to convince the members of Kadima to turn to the Prime minister and ask him to resign for the good of the country, the Kadima party and his own good," coalition chairman Avigdor Yitzhaki said on Israeli army radio. "In light of the findings of the report , the Prime minister has no choice but to resign."
But at the start of Wednesday's weekly Security Cabinet meeting, Olmert called for patience just two days after the Winograd Commission criticized the prime minister's decision to go to war.
"The members of the commission made it clear the main issue is learning the lessons derived from the failings," Olmert said.
"In my opinion that is the main obligation of this government -- the government that is responsible for the failings and is also responsible for the corrections. To all those that are in haste to make political gain I advise, slow down," he added.
The Winograd Commission, in an interim report released on Monday, said that Olmert was too hasty to go to war, that Defense Minister Amir Peretz was inexperienced, and that former Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz acted impulsively without disclosing that the Israeli military was not prepared to carry out a land war in Lebanon.
Cabinet member Eitan Cabel, a Labor party member of Olmert's Kadima-led coalition, resigned on Tuesday in the wake of the Winograd Commission's report and called on Olmert to follow his lead, the Israeli daily Haaretz reported.
"The public has lost faith in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert," Cabel said. "I cannot continue to serve as a minister in a government headed by Olmert."
"Ehud Olmert must resign," he added. "Olmert bears the responsibility, and responsibility cannot be shared."
Halutz resigned in January following intense pressure to step down after the 34-day war, but Olmert has so far refused to consider resignation.
"It would be incorrect to resign, and I do not intend to do so," he said Monday.
But the gathering storm calling for his resignation, including mass protests, like one scheduled for Thursday in Tel Aviv, could force the successor to Ariel Sharon out of office -- and out as Kadima party chairman.
Yitzhaki pointed to Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni as the natural replacement for Olmert. But Olmert, according to Israel's Channel 10 television, rejected Livni as his successor.
